What happened to intellectual honesty?

Statistical reasoning is not statistical analysis.

 

I googled the distinction. Nothing shows up to differentiate the two. Rather, statistical reasoning seems to be metacognition where you explain the statistical processes. Statistical analysis, on the other hand, seems to be more closely linked with inferences.

 

Do you even understand what you posted even means? Because your opening sentence implies you don't.

 

Please enlighten me and cite authoritative sources.

I am a good sport to learn something new (scholarly distinction between statistical reasoning and statistical analysis).

Edit: It's not a debate so you can relax. My mind is open.

 

From my point of view, it was unfortunately done in the wrong thread.

There is plenty of talk here about such things and I will say that having a differing view is not a bad thing.
However, please take into account that not everyone feels the same as you in terms of how P2W is implemented in the game.
The developers intentions for implementing these mechanics may not feel nefarious to you, but they do to most of the people here.

I respectfully disagree with your opinion.

When I read your posts they came across in a combative tone, which baits people to give you a weaponized response.

-Alarra

 

I apologize for my seemingly combative tone. I will admit that I am irked when I hear the same negative points reiterated ad nauseaum. (And, I don't live in a world full of unicorns and rainbows but please show some evidence). Some people on here even joked on a time when Daybreak and EQ2 would finally fold. Yet, as time has passed, they have the audacity to show up on the official forums with clean hands and the same message?

This is a copy of what I wrote Mermut on the official boards:

It's fine to speculate. But speculation has become gospel (truth) for some.

It's doubly annoying that these "true believers" (who foretold the end of EQ2/Daybreak last year) come to the forums to push their theories (in unqualified, even "because I love the game", language)…..Some are so zealous that they want to create conditions for a self-fulfilling prophecy for that all too trivial idea: "I told you so."

-------------------------------------------------------

I understand and respect your opinion Alarra.

Respectfully, Benito.

 

Personally, I cannot give you hard facts to dispute your opinion, as developers do not divulge such things to the public, just anecdotal stuff. You can choose to make up your mind as you please.


As an example of such for the P2W, during Kunark Ascending, we had the Ascensions that were introduced.
The spells were in orders magnitudes of power over all of our other abilities for most classes to do damage or to buff.
In order to increase the power of these spells, you had to get 10 components for each spell tier from instances.
Solo giving the initial level up component, heroics giving expert and master level.
It took me 7 months to get 1 spell up to master via the in-game path provided. I got 2 others up via the 500 dbc per month provided.
Others had purchased their spells and gotten them up to the full tier, my dps and utility to groups with these players were viewed in a negative light.
As time went by, more of these players came to be. I felt compelled to get to the same area as them and finished my other spells by purchasing the ones that would make a difference for $300.
This environment was from my point of view created by the mechanics that the developers had implemented into the game of making it difficult to acquire the abilities via in game means, while making a purchasable pathway. Based on my experience, this created a social atmosphere between the haves and have nots within the player community that social pressure made us feel we needed to have these abilities feel wanted or needed within groups or raids.

Before the KA expac came out, you were able to get spell research reduction items from the Skyshrine advanced solos.
When it came out, this was removed.

With regards to DBG ending and what not, there were a number of factors that contributed to this sentiment.

1. Columbus Nova, the Parent company for when SoE became DBG; was associated with a Russian oligarch that was sanctioned by the American Government, that later was revealed that the real owner was Jason Epstein. How it was attributed to him as opposed to Columnbus Nova was up for speculation. (have a search on the internet about it and form your own opinion if you haven't already)
   The way that the possibility of a financial regulator in the US would possibly come in and freeze the assets of DBG seemed high at the time.
   It is possible due to the way these things work that things may still be in the works.
   Splitting the studios will give an extra layer of protection from liability I guess as they are their own entities now.
   
2. Recently DBG has sunsetted a couple of games, it seemed that such may be inevitable for an older game that seems to be losing players more than gaining new ones, for the moment we are spared this. I hope that we will be able to play the game for more time to come.
3. DBG has started to restructure itself to reduce liability and potentially making each studio semi-autonomous.
   The end game for such a move is generally to sell off the broken up parts then to wind down the holding company.
   But again, this is speculation, it can also be used as a move to reduce liability in the event something goes wrong with one area to insulate the rest of the entities.

-Alarra

Edit:
Please excuse some bad English that you may encounter in my posts, I have lived in Japan for 10 years and barely speak it except in game and on these forums.
So if I make a mistake with a word meaning, please understand.

 

As a mathematician, statistical analysis means running a large set of numbers through various statistical formula/equations/methods and then analyzing the results.
Statistical reasoning does not involve the level of mathematical rigor and number crunching.

 

U

I agree. It is anecdotal and subject to speculation. Some individuals push their unsubstantiated theories as gospel like a preacher.

It is not necessary to increase the power of the spells to enjoy the game. I brought up the example of capital ships in Eve Online and Star Citizen on the official boards. Capital ships are nice, prestigious, and powerful but not necessary to enjoy the game.

The fact that you were required 10 component for spell upgrades reinforces my point that the developers likely wanted to diversify specialization and/or mastery (as opposed to cookie-cutter end-game archetypes).

That is your prerogative. I won't question your decision to spend that money. I don't question people who spend thousands in casinos or on vacations. You (1) shouldn't feel pressured but (2) don't feel disappointed. People have spent $30,000 or more on games like Star Citizen and Eve Online. If you don't like the game models (too onerous), then you don't have to play the game. If you like the game but feel compelled too frequently, I invite you seek advice from family, friends, or a professional (financial advisor or psychologist - depending on the impulse).

Meet a fan who has spent $30,000 on Star Citizen ships | PC Gamer

How old are you?

I am sorry you felt that way. If you feel social pressure (Feldon told me he is resistant to peer pressure), you should seek advice from family, friends, or a professional. I appreciate Japanese culture and their concept of Zen (mindfulness). Meditation will probably help you to not worry over "haves" and "have-nots" or "min-max."

You should not trust everything that you read from that glorified social influencer blog called Massively. They have started to inhale their own self-importance (wannabe/reject journalists) and expect studios to kiss their ring (gifts-in-kind, special access). Massively's prognostications (i.e. overblown Russophobic worst-case scenarios) have been proven wrong on many counts. These are the same folks who rate vaporware higher than real games. Ignore that trash.

Your English is great. You had me fooled.

 

Thank you for that. My forte is in law and English but not mathematics. The understanding of the technicalities will make my arguments stronger.

Let me reword my incorrect comment:

Another tongue-in-cheek point and a good natured nudge of Gillymann's point deriving motive from "statistical [reasoning]"

 

​

Alarra, this is Feldon on the official board telling me he is resistant to social pressure:

We need to be more like Feldon!

You getting pressure? Tell Daybreak, "You don't know me at all" and cut that credit card. Yeeeee…….

 

Well, I haven't splurged like that again, so I think I will be fine. Thank you for your concern.

I prefer a more reputable source for some things:
Daybreak Games denies reported links to sanctioned Russian oligarch [Updated]

Careful there, that could be construed as insulting.

But I like using Amazon.....

As an aside, and perhaps a little off topic,
What is your favourite Class in EQ2?
How are you finding BoL?

 

One of the problems with the P2W option with Ascencions is that while your friends will care more about you than your dps, if you also have fun doing pick up groups or such, others do care. They wont run with you, or even mock you if you try to join such groups. At that takes a lot of the fun away. And as friends quit and guilds die (as they have been) its harder to find new friends who accept you and your dps as it is.

I had this problem but I knew that since I was playing my tank class as a aoe dps class, so I ONLY worked with friends or guildies. Even before KA. But I didn't start playing EQ2 to be a spellcaster entirely, but as a ghetto necro who wore armor and casted less spells.

Now, I don't play EQ or EQ2 at all. I wasn't using a credit card, but krono given to me or bought with in game gold. Now they are rotting away.

 

My authoritative source is me. M.A. in econometrics and mathematical economics, and 30 years of experience; 15 as a banker, and until present, applying data science to business problems, mostly marketing and human resources problems.

To learn and understand the difference between statistical analysis and statistical reasoning, go grab yourself a couple of entry level text books; one on statistics and one on probability theory. Your local library should have what you need.

Statistical reasoning is not an innate skill. In fact thinking this ways runs against the grain of human nature. Statisticians contemplate problems differently. It's just how we're trained to think.

My inferences regarding dbg/dpg are indeed speculative to a certain extent, but they are also guided by experience, which is another way of saying this is not the first time I've seen companies that behave the way they do.

I have literally signed-off on thousands of loans in my career, and you may be suprised to learn that a fair number of borrowers, both individuals and businesses can be prone to painting a picture that is rosier than reality. Every banker has to deal with loans that fail, and as a part of that, one acquires highly tuned bullshit detector.

I short, I can plausibly speculate about what DBG is up to, because it's not the first time I've seen (a) the behavior, and (b) the likely outcome.

Lot's of folks here believe I'm overly cynical about DBG. They may agree more with Feldon's belief that the company just makes dumb decisions and refuses to learn from mistakes. I actually agree with that part and that's been a systematic problem since Georgeson was running the show.

However, since Longdale took over, there has been an increasing tendency yo react to the consequences of judgment errors by becoming overly dependent on manipulating customers into buying. This is trading a few extra bucks in the short term for the long term integrity of their brand.

They're entitled to run what ever revenue model they want. I'm not judging that.

The offense I take is the shady business practices. That's why I have repeatedly stressed that if Longdale is sincere about what she claims with her public statements, she'll communicate with candor about what customers can expect each year and she'll open up the entire game design - rng, scarcity, and all ..during beta instead of hiding it.

There is a difference between serving customers and exploiting them. Time will reveal all, and I might very well be wrong. We shall see.

 

AWWWW!!! Fuli/Gillymann had a Bubble Gnome of his own follow him here from the OF. That's so sweet.

From a quick scan of this thread and the quotes, looks like over in that territory disagreement or non-compliance still equals hate/intellectual dishonesty/conspiracy theories/etc. I think this is my favorite part. I wonder how long this one will last. The polite, if vigorous, disagreement caused the last two to tuck tail in less than a week.

It's been a couple of years, you'd think they could come up with some new buzzwords, at least.

 

So basically you logged in only because you saw this event as a can't miss opportunity to poke me in the eye with a stick.

Your evil is limitless.

 

The preacher Fuli/Gillymann has his little altar boy Tekka back.

 

I agree. Same goes for the usage of statistical reasoning in a court of law.

 

I was playing Skyrim the other day and caught a disease called brain rot, and I was wondering, what the heck would brain rot be like? And then I read this thread and now I know.